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📈 US-Iran Conflict Triggers Global Market Volatility & Oil Price Surge

The escalation of conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran on March 1, 2026, has immediately impacted global energy and financial markets, with significant implications for oil-dependent economies like Sri Lanka. • Energy & Oil Markets • Brent crude is currently trading near $73/bbl, up 20% YTD. • Analysts warn of a spike to $80/bbl in the short term, with potential to hit $100/bbl if a prolonged conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz (carrying 20% of global supply). • A sustained $100/bbl price could add 0.6-0.7 percentage points to global inflation. • Currency & Safe Havens • The US Dollar is expected to strengthen against most currencies due to its status as a net energy exporter, potentially increasing pressure on emerging market forex reserves. • Gold has risen 22% in 2026, reaching record highs as investors seek safe havens. • The Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen remain primary hedges against geopolitical instability. • Sector Impacts • Airlines: Significant pressure expected due to regional airspace closures and flight cancellations. • Logistics & Shipping: Major trading houses have already suspended fuel shipments through the Persian Gulf. • Technology: High volatility expected, following an existing 15% rise in US bond volatility this year. • Regional Markets • Gulf equities (Saudi Arabia, Dubai) are projected to drop between 3-5% if hostilities persist, impacting global investment sentiment.

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📈 Rs. 140 Bn Bond Auction Sees Yields Fall Amid Record Liquidity

Sri Lanka’s secondary bond market rallied strongly following a highly successful auction by the Public Debt Management Office, which raised the full Rs. 140 billion offered across three maturities. The auction reflected a "bullish" trend driven by a 22-year high in market liquidity. • Auction Outcomes & Yields • 2030 Maturity: Issued at a weighted average yield of 9.50% (fully subscribed). • 2034 Maturity: Issued at a weighted average yield of 10.70% (fully subscribed). • 2037 Maturity: Issued at a weighted average yield of 10.88% (fully subscribed). • Demand: Strong investor appetite with a bid-to-acceptance ratio of 2.79 times. • Market Liquidity & Rates • Net liquidity surplus hit a massive Rs. 341.02 Bn, surpassing the previous day's 22-year record. • Overnight call money and repo rates remained stable at 7.69% and 7.71% respectively. • Aggressive buying in the secondary market pushed rates lower across multiple tenors, including the 2027, 2029, and 2032 maturities. • Currency & Trade Volume • USD/LKR: The Rupee remained steady, closing at Rs. 309.29/309.32 against the US Dollar. • Forex Volume: Total USD/LKR traded volume stood at US$ 123.65 Mn. • Secondary Market: Total transacted volume for bonds/bills reached Rs. 26.43 Bn. Context: Falling yields and high liquidity suggest a favorable environment for government borrowing and potential easing in the broader financial services sector.

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📈 Asian Markets Hit All-Time Highs Amid US Policy Shifts

Asian equities surged to record levels this Thursday, buoyed by robust U.S. labor data and a tech-sector rally. While global sentiment is positive, the delay in expected U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts presents a mixed landscape for emerging economies like Sri Lanka. • Overall Market Performance The MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose 0.65% to a new peak, marking a 13% gain in the first six weeks of 2026. Technology led gains in Japan and South Korea, with Japanese shares further boosted by recent election-driven stimulus promises. • Monetary Policy & US Yields Stronger-than-expected U.S. job growth has slashed the probability of a March rate cut from 20% to just 5%. • U.S. 2-year Treasury yields jumped to 3.512%. • U.S. 10-year Treasury yields stood at 4.186%. • Impact on Sri Lanka & Regional Outlook Higher U.S. yields typically support the US Dollar, which may pressure the Sri Lankan Rupee (LKR 309.35/40) despite its recent stability. For Sri Lanka, delayed Fed easing maintains elevated borrowing costs for foreign debt servicing and could temper the pace of domestic interest rate reductions by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL). • Commodities & Energy • Crude Oil: Brent rose 0.4% to US$ 69.68/bbl due to Middle East tensions. Rising energy costs remain a risk to Sri Lanka's agriculture sector and domestic electricity pricing. • Gold: Prices dipped 0.44% to US$ 5,058.49/oz as the dollar firmed.

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📈 Global Market Volatility & Commodity Surge: Sri Lanka Impact

Asian and global markets are experiencing significant turbulence as AI-driven disruption fears hit the software sector, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive a rebound in commodities. • Global Market Wobble Global equities are on "shaky ground" following a sell-off in U.S. and European software and data analytics sectors. This stems from fears that advancements in AI (notably Anthropic’s new agents) could replace traditional software. Asian markets, including Japan’s Nikkei (-1.23%) and Taiwan (-0.68%), also dipped, though the region's focus on hardware manufacturing provided a partial buffer. • Oil & Energy Surge Global oil prices jumped over 1% (Brent at US$ 68.03) following military escalations involving U.S. and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical waterway for Asian energy imports. This follows a recent Rs. 2 per litre cut in local fuel prices by CPC (Octane 92 at Rs. 292), which may face upward pressure if global trends persist. • Gold & Precious Metals Gold has staged a sharp comeback, reclaiming the US$ 5,000 per ounce level (+1.5%). Locally, this triggered a spike of approximately Rs. 12,000 per sovereign. • 24-Carat Gold: Rs. 380,000 • 22-Carat Gold: Rs. 349,000 • Economic Implications The volatility is exacerbated by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as U.S. Fed Chair, signaling a potential balance sheet shrinkage. While the Colombo Stock Exchange (ASPI) recently saw moderate declines, the local ICT/BPM sector remains a focal point for long-term AI-related structural shifts.

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📈 Gold Hits Historic US$ 5,000 Milestone Amid Global Volatility

Global gold prices shattered records on Monday, surging past the psychological US$ 5,000 per ounce barrier. The rally is driven by intense safe-haven demand as investors navigate heightening geopolitical tensions and a "crisis of confidence" in traditional assets. • Global Market Performance: • Spot Gold: Rose 1.79% to reach a record high of US$ 5,071.96/oz. • 2026 Gains: Prices have already climbed over 17% this year, following a massive 64% surge in 2025. • Forecast: Analysts at Metals Focus predict a potential peak of US$ 5,500/oz later this year. • Impact on Sri Lanka: • Local Prices: Following the global spike, the price of a 22-carat gold sovereign in Colombo’s Pettah market reached Rs. 397,800 today (26 Jan), a significant jump from early January rates. • Industrial Shift: Domestic authorities are reportedly exploring the establishment of a gold refinery to bypass high import taxes (>45%) and trade restrictions. • Reserves: The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) maintained gold reserves valued at approx. US$ 86.15 Mn as of Dec 2025, though physical holdings remain at a historically low 0.47 tonnes. • Other Precious Metals: • Silver: Surged 4.57% to US$ 107.65/oz, continuing its record-breaking momentum. • Platinum & Palladium: Gained 3.26% and 3.2% respectively, reflecting a broad-based rally in metals. _Summary based on market data as of Jan 26, 2026._

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📈 Gold Prices Hit Record High; Local Markets Under Pressure

Global gold prices surged to an all-time high of US$ 4,904.66/ounce on January 22, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, a weakening US dollar, and expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. • Global Outlook & Targets Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 price target upward to US$ 5,400/ounce (from US$ 4,900), citing aggressive central bank accumulation—averaging 60 tonnes per month—and rising demand for gold ETFs from private investors. • Domestic Price Impact The global rally has caused a sharp spike in Sri Lankan markets (provisional data): 24-Carat Gold: Priced at approx. Rs. 419,100 per pawn (8g). 22-Carat Gold: Reached approx. Rs. 384,200 per pawn (8g). Silver: Also gained 3.5% globally, reaching US$ 96.45, mirroring the trend in precious metals. • Economic Implications Gems, Diamonds & Jewellery: The sector—traditionally a key foreign exchange earner (approx. US$ 282 Mn in 2024)—faces severe domestic demand contraction (over 50%) due to record-high prices and the 18% VAT impact. Financial Services: Rising collateral values are boosting the pawning and gold-backed lending volumes across banks and NBFIs. Reserves: Sri Lanka's gold reserves stood at US$ 86.15 Mn as of December 2025; the current rally provides a significant valuation lift to these national assets. • Market Drivers The "safe-haven" rush is intensified by central banks diversifying away from the US dollar, which fell 0.3% on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.

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### Colombo Stock Market Opens Week in the Red 📈

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) experienced a downward trend yesterday as the week commenced, primarily driven by a significant foreign outflow and mid-day volatility. • Overall Market Performance The benchmark ASPI declined by 0.44% (103.73 points) to close at 23,627.87. The active S&P SL20 also dipped 0.32% to 6,539.35. Market turnover remained healthy at approximately Rs. 4.7 Bn, with over 214.2 million shares changing hands. • Sectoral Insights Capital Goods: Emerged as the top contributor, accounting for 27% of turnover, despite the sector index falling 0.58%. Notable activity was seen in ACL Cables and Colombo Dockyard. Banking & Materials: Collectively contributed 29% to daily turnover. Tokyo Cement was a key driver in the materials space. Hotels & Tourism: Retail investors showed strong interest in this sector ahead of the upcoming earnings season. • Investor Activity Foreign Investors: Emerged as net sellers with a significant net outflow of Rs. 697.9 Mn. Retail & HNW: High net worth (HNW) and institutional participation were concentrated in telecommunications (Dialog Axiata) and construction-related counters. Retail activity remained high in speculative and hotel-sector stocks. • Key Stock Movements Top negative contributors to the ASPI included Colombo Dockyard, Commercial Bank, and Nations Trust Bank. Conversely, Dialog Axiata and Citrus Leisure bucked the trend to post marginal gains.

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📈 US-EU Trade Tension Hits Global Markets; Sri Lanka Exports at Risk

Global stocks and the dollar dipped on Monday as President Trump threatened new 10% to 25% tariffs on 8 European nations over a Greenland purchase dispute. This escalation, coupled with existing US trade pressures, creates a volatile environment for Sri Lankan markets. • Overall Market Impact: • US S&P 500 futures fell 0.7%; Nasdaq futures down 1.0%. • European markets (DAX/EUROSTOXX) slid 1.1% on retaliatory fears. • Gold hit an all-time high of US$ 4,664/oz as investors sought safety. • Brent Crude eased 0.5% to US$ 63.84/bbl amid global growth concerns. • Sector Breakdowns & Sri Lanka Exposure: • Apparel & Textiles: Most vulnerable sector; industry experts warn that prolonged US-EU trade wars could dampen demand in Sri Lanka’s two largest export destinations. • Tea: Vulnerable to secondary US sanctions; tea exports (earning US$ 1.4 Bn in 2025) face risks if barter deals with nations like Iran trigger additional 25% US "punishing duties." • ICT/BPM: Remains a crucial buffer; services exports reached US$ 5 Bn in 2025, though global market instability may impact future contract scaling. • Strategic Outlook: With Sri Lanka's foreign reserves at US$ 6.1 Bn (as of end-2025), the economy faces a "weaponization of capital." Analysts suggest Sri Lanka must accelerate trade diversification toward East Asia to mitigate the impact of a potential 30%-44% US tariff scenario on garments and rubber products. _Note: Summary based on provisional market data and current geopolitical developments as of Jan 19, 2026._

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CSE Indices End Flat Amid Mixed Interest 📈

The Colombo stock market remained steady for the second straight session, with indices closing marginally lower despite healthy turnover levels. • Overall Market Performance The All Share Price Index (ASPI) edged down by 0.71 points to 23,607.80. The S&P SL20 index also dipped by 0.12% (7.69 points) to close at 6,494.76. Total market turnover reached over Rs. 4.9 Bn, with approximately 133.3 million shares changing hands. • Investor Activity Foreign investors recorded a net inflow of Rs. 22 Mn. High net worth and institutional activity was concentrated in banking and diversified financials, specifically Citizens Development Business Finance, Melstacorp, and Hatton National Bank. Retail interest remained strong in speculative counters and the real estate sector. • Sector Breakdowns • Capital Goods: Emerged as the top turnover contributor (19%), led by Sierra Cables which saw its price rise by Rs. 1.30 to Rs. 36.30, despite the sector index falling 1.43%. • Banking: The second highest contributor, accounting for a significant portion of the 29% share held together with diversified financials. The sector index rose 0.34%, supported by Commercial Bank which edged up to Rs. 219.75. • Real Estate: Attracted notably higher interest alongside foreign currency-earning counters. • Top Laggards Price losses in blue-chip diversified holdings like John Keells Holdings (JKH), alongside Colombo Dockyard and DFCC Bank, weighed on the ASPI.

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📈 Alphabet Joins US$ 4 Trillion Club Amid AI Surge

Alphabet hit a historic US$ 4 trillion market valuation on Monday, reclaiming its position as the world’s second most valuable company. The milestone reflects a massive shift in investor sentiment, with the stock surging 65% in 2025—outperforming its "Magnificent Seven" peers. • Overall Performance & Valuation Alphabet's market cap briefly touched the US$ 4 Tn mark as Class-A shares hit a record high of US$ 334.04. It is now the fourth company to reach this milestone, following Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple. • Strategic Sector Highlights Artificial Intelligence (AI): Sentiment was bolstered by a landmark multi-year deal where Apple will base its next-generation AI models and Siri on Google's Gemini. Cloud Computing: Revenue for the cloud unit jumped 34% in Q3, supported by a backlog of unrecognized sales contracts totaling US$ 155 Bn. ICT & Hardware: Growth is further accelerated by renting proprietary AI chips to external firms, with Meta reportedly in talks for a multi-billion dollar deal starting in 2027. • Market Outlook The company successfully allayed concerns over its AI strategy through the launch of Gemini 3. Regional momentum remains strong, with Samsung planning to double its Gemini-powered mobile devices this year. Core advertising revenue remains steady despite global economic uncertainty. • Regulatory Context A September court ruling against breaking up the company—allowing it to retain control of Chrome and Android—has further stabilized the stock’s growth trajectory.

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Secondary Bond Market Yields Lower Amid High Auction Liquidity 📈

The Sri Lankan secondary bond market yields closed lower week-on-week, driven by robust buying interest in mid-to-long term maturities. While the short end saw intermittent profit-taking, the "belly of the curve" (2029–2030) remained stable or dropped, supported by healthy transaction volumes and block trades. • Overall Market Dynamics: Yields on 2029–2032 tenors generally eased. The 15.06.29 maturity dropped to 9.50% from week highs, while the 01.10.32 maturity traded down to 10.30%. The short end (2026) showed late-week recovery with the 15.12.26 maturity trading at 8.50%. • Treasury Auctions: - T-Bills: Last Wednesday’s auction was fully subscribed for the first time in 4 weeks, raising Rs. 100 Bn. Weighted averages rose for the 3rd consecutive week: 91-day (7.88%), 182-day (8.44%), and 364-day (8.47%). - Upcoming T-Bonds: A major auction is scheduled for today (12 Jan) offering Rs. 205 Bn across four maturities (2030, 2033, 2035, and 2039). • Liquidity & Forex: - Money Market: Net liquidity surplus rose to Rs. 171.03 Bn (up from Rs. 134.48 Bn). CBSL holdings of government securities remained flat at Rs. 2,508.92 Bn. - External Sector: Marginal net foreign inflow of Rs. 57 Mn into government securities. The Sri Lankan Rupee (LKR) appreciated slightly against the USD, closing at Rs. 309.00/30. • Sector Impact: The stable yields in the longer end reflect sustained investor confidence in government securities, providing a benchmark for corporate lending and supporting the broader financial services sector and infrastructure financing.

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📈 MBSL Midcap Index Revised for 2026

The Merchant Bank of Sri Lanka (MBSL) has announced the annual recalibration of the MBSL Midcap Index, effective from 1 January 2026. The index tracks 25 medium-sized companies on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) based on market capitalization, liquidity, and profitability. • Market Capitalization Range: For 2026, the eligibility range has been adjusted to Rs. 8.45 Bn – Rs. 84.5 Bn (up from Rs. 4.9 Bn – Rs. 49.07 Bn in 2025), reflecting movements in the ASPI. • Sector Breakdown: The index now represents 9 GICS industry groups: • Banking: HNB (X), Seylan, Seylan (X), DFCC, and NDB. • Capital Goods: ACL Cables, Access Engineering, Sierra Cables, Royal Ceramics, and Aitken Spence. • Diversified Financials: Commercial Credit, Central Finance, Vallibel Finance, First Capital, and People’s Leasing. • Other Key Sectors: Includes Energy (LIOC), Materials (Chevron, Dipped Products, JAT), Food & Beverage (Sunshine Holdings, Lanka Milk Foods), and Real Estate. • Key Inclusions: New entrants for 2026 include Sierra Cables, Aitken Spence, Vallibel Finance, Lanka IOC, Janashakthi Insurance, JAT Holdings, and Prime Lands Residencies. • Notable Exclusions: Companies such as John Keells Holdings, TeeJay Lanka, and Watawala Plantations have been removed from the 2026 index. The revision aims to provide portfolio managers with signals for switching to stocks with high growth potential and moderate volatility.

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📈 Global Equity Rally & Oil Dip: Impact on SL Sentiment

Global markets extended gains this Tuesday, driven by AI-linked tech optimism and favorable US manufacturing data. Asian indices, including Hong Kong and Tokyo, surged as investors anticipated potential Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, oil prices dipped as supply concerns in Venezuela eased, providing a potential relief for Sri Lanka’s energy import costs. • Stock Market Performance: The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) remains upbeat, with the ASPI rising 3.9% over the last week. The index closed at 23,292.91 (Jan 6), reflecting a robust 46.9% YoY growth. Financials and Renewable Energy sectors are leading the current rally. • Sector Growth & Exports: • Apparel & Textiles: Cumulative exports (Jan-Nov 2025) reached US$ 4.57 Bn, a 5.42% YoY increase. While November saw a slight 1.96% dip, the EU market grew by 13.07%, highlighting strong ethical manufacturing demand. • Tea: Production showed a modest recovery, with cumulative output up 2.82 Mnkg to 220.97 Mnkg. Low-grown tea rose 5.96%, though high-grown segments faced a 6.22% decline. • Economic Outlook: Based on provisional data, Sri Lanka’s 2026 budget deficit is projected to rise to 6.5% of GDP due to Rs. 500 Bn in Cyclone Ditwah recovery spending. Despite this, 2026 GDP growth is forecasted at 3.5%–5.0% as stability returns. • Currency & Inflation: The Sri Lankan Rupee recently depreciated below 310 per US$, while December inflation remained steady at 2.1%.

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📈 Review of Sri Lanka’s Bond Market 2025

The Government Securities market in 2025 was defined by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and fiscal overperformance, despite intermittent volatility from global shocks and natural disasters. Yields generally trended lower, supported by a shift in the yield curve and robust investor appetite. • Fiscal Performance & Debt: • Revenue grew by Rs. 1.3 Tn (+35% YoY) due to tax reforms. • Primary surplus doubled to Rs. 1.94 Tn (+109% YoY). • Budget deficit narrowed sharply to Rs. 326 Bn from Rs. 1.22 Tn. • S&P upgraded foreign currency rating to CCC+ in September. • Monetary & Inflation Indicators: • CCPI inflation remained in deflation from January–July, ending the year well below the 5% target. • A single 25 bps policy rate cut in May brought the Overnight Policy Rate to 7.75%. • Market liquidity remained in surplus, exceeding Rs. 100 Bn for 80% of the year. • External Sector & Foreign Investment: • Foreign holdings in Rupee Treasuries surged 259% to Rs. 141.37 Bn. • Current account surplus reached US$ 1.68 Bn (Jan-Nov), aided by a 21% rise in remittances. • Gross International Reserves stood at US$ 6.00 Bn as of November. • Key Risks & Outlook: • Market sentiment was shaken by US 'Reciprocal Tariffs' (finalized at 20%) and the Iran-Israel conflict. • Year-end yields rose due to Cyclone Ditwah, resulting in a Rs. 500 Bn supplementary estimate for 2026 reconstruction, creating uncertainty for future rate trajectories.

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📈 SL Equities Now a 'Top Pick' for Foreign Frontier Fund: Stability & Undervaluation Key

AFC Asia Frontier Fund (AFC AFF) Co-Fund Manager Ruchir Desai has given an upbeat assessment, stating Sri Lanka is one of the Fund's top country picks, entering its most promising phase in a decade. • Core Drivers: The recovery is built on political and macroeconomic stability, which are critical prerequisites for sustained investor interest. • Fund Allocation: AFC AFF increased exposure soon after November 2022 (the 'crisis bottom') and Sri Lanka is now the Fund's second-largest country allocation. • Valuations: Equities remain significantly undervalued vs. fundamentals and regional peers. The broader market trades at ~11x earnings (P/E), below the 14-16x P/E seen pre-2018. • Sector Strength: Company fundamentals have returned to pre-crisis strength, showing robust earnings growth across banking, consumer, and industrial sectors. Private banks are benefitting directly from improved credit growth. • Valuation Gap: E.g., a leading SL bank trades at ~1x book value, while a comparable regional bank trades at nearly 2.5x, despite SL banks showing stronger earnings momentum. • Structural Strengths: Highlighting strong corporate governance, transparency, and a resilient pool of well-run companies. Untapped sectors include logistics and tourism. • Foreign Flows: Although currently low, foreign interest is expected to return by 2026 or 2027 if stability persists. Desai stressed that the platform is set for stable growth, but the country must "not to drop the ball" by maintaining reforms. 🤞

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📈 SL Bond Market Bullish on Favorable 2026 Budget Outlook

The secondary Government securities market saw a second consecutive week of bullish momentum, driven by strong demand and positive sentiment following the 2026 Budget reading. • Bond Market Trends: Robust activity and transaction volumes pushed yields sharply lower, causing a downward shift in the yield curve, particularly across 2026–2030 maturities. • Example: The 01.07.28 maturity yield declined from an intra-week high of 9.17% to a low of 9.00%. • Daily secondary market transacted volumes averaged Rs. 13.99 Bn for the first three days. • Foreign holdings of rupee-denominated securities remained static at Rs. 141.32 Bn. • Budget 2026 Projections (Key Drivers): The bullish sentiment was supported by Budget statements outlining continued macro-fiscal discipline and key targets for 2026: • Economic growth projected at 4%-5%. • Primary Budget Balance of 2.5% of GDP. • Budget Deficit maintained at 5.1% of GDP. • Government revenue expected to exceed 15.4% of GDP. • Additional positive development: Expectation of national carrier debt restructuring by December. • Money & Forex Markets: • Inter-bank liquidity surplus reduced to Rs. 118.29 Bn (from Rs. 155.05 Bn the previous week). • USD/LKR spot rate depreciated, closing the week at Rs. 304.80/304.90 (vs. Rs. 304.35/304.45 prior week). • Daily average USD/LKR traded volume stood at US$ 119.7 Mn (first four trading days).

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